DNA Detective Work and the story of a secretive agent

I decided that it was high time that I looked at some of my closer DNA matches, where I am unable to identify a common ancestor. I should explain that ‘closer’ in my case means not very close at all. My lack of cousins means that I only have three matches above 70cM and one of those is my daughter. My attention turned to a 48cM match with no tree. From shared matches, I had placed this person on the Smith/Seear side of my family tree. The Smith/Seears are tricky DNA wise because three generations of Smiths marry Seears, so I am often related to people on this line more than once. This means that suggested relationships are distorted. Without my pedigree collapse, the amount of shared cM with the mystery match might suggest that the relationship was in the region of a 3rd or 4th cousin, maybe with a removed or two.

The profile indicated that the user had joined Ancestry in 2016 and hadn’t signed in for over a year. I don’t want to give the actual name for privacy reasons but the user name looked like it could be the first half of an unusual female christian name and a surname run into one. This isn’t it but think constabolt might be Constance Bolt. I guessed at the name, Googled it and up came an obituary for the husband of someone with that name. This indicated that the person I was searching for was born in a particular smallish town in the south of England. Further internet searches revealed a maiden name and a middle christian name. To make this story easier to follow, yet still anonymise it, I am going to tell it with a fictitious maiden name. Let us say it was ‘Forester’, which probably has a similar rarity value as the actual name. This with the other information was unusual enough for me to locate a birth entry and discover that the lady, if she was still alive, would be in her nineties. Better still, her mother’s maiden name was Seear. Not only did it look as if I was on the right track but a great advantage over Smith. Yay! Eureka and all that. Now all I had to do was find a marriage for a Seear and a ‘Forester’ and I was away. This was going to be easy. Err, no. Not a marriage in sight. I searched for any other ‘Forester’- Seear children. None. Given that the marriage was likely to be not long after the first world war, it seemed probable that Miss Seear had married x before she was married to Mr ‘Forester’.

The Seears’ normal stomping ground is east London. There couldn’t be many in this small southern English town could there? There weren’t. I tried the 1911 census and the 1939 register for that area. I found a family in 1911 with two daughters who were potential wives for Mr ‘Forester’. They both married other people and died with those surnames; no second marriages to Mr ‘Forester’. The 1911 census indicated that there were other children who were not in the household, maybe I could find another daughter. According to the census there had been nine children, three had died and three more needed to be found. The family was headed by a married Emily Seear, no husband in sight. I found her in 1901, still in London, still married and still no husband, this gave me three more children. The children had unusual christian names but I couldn’t identify birth registrations for them all. Checking the births I could find on the GRO site gave me Emily’s maiden name but searching with Seear and the maiden name did not reveal the missing children, nor were they registered under Emily’s maiden name. I had her year of marriage from the 1911 census. This meant that I could find her marriage entry and the name of Mr Seear, who was potentially the grandfather of my DNA match. It was a name I recognised and suggested that the match and I were third cousins once removed twice over. I will continue to refer to him as Mr Seear, although, from this point, I was searching under his full name.

I was left with a gap and some questions. Which daughter of Emily Seear was the mother of my match, why weren’t all the children registered and where the heck was Mr Seear, who died in the 1920s but is elusive between his marriage and that point? He was clearly around to father nine children on Emily, at least one of whom really was his biological child, or there would be no DNA match.

By diligent searching I found one of the daughters marrying under a variant of Seear and then a subsequent marriage, under the surname of her first husband, to Mr ‘Forester’, which proved my link to my DNA match.

I did find the baptism of one of the children whose birth wasn’t registered but I couldn’t find the three who had died by 1911; perhaps Emily was counting still-births. There are some large gaps in the children but given what appears to be a rather odd relationship between Emily and Mr Seear that isn’t surprising.

So what do we know about Mr Seear? Given that he is my first cousin three times removed and not a close relative, I hadn’t researched him beyond his name and appearance with his parents in the 1861 and 1871 censuses before. He married in his home area in East London in August 1881, claiming to be a banker’s clerk, yet he can’t be found in the 1881 census, despite my knowing his address just four months later. Seear is a bit of a nightmare to search. Apart from the variants (Seer, Sear, Seeare and many more), it is often mis-transcribed as Leear or Teear, or indeed it seems something else entirely.

I did find a listing for Mr Seear going to Baltimore in 1883. His occupation was ‘agent’. Much as I’d love to think this was some kind of secret agent, I am quite sure it was as the representative of a company or organisation. Perhaps this is why there is an apparent gap between the first child in 1882 and the second in 1886. I totally failed to find Emily or Mr Seear in the 1891 census. I know they were in east London when a child was born at the end of 1891. I tried every technique I know, including search for christian names and dates of birth, without a surname. I tried the 1890 US census in case they all went to America; they were not there either.

I can’t find any children born between 1886 and 1891 when suddenly there were three children born in as many years, perhaps the relationship was re-kindled. There is then another gap before the final child in 1899. I have a baptism for this child on which Mr Seear calls himself a Dining Room Proprietor.

So we reach 1901 and no surprise that Mr Seear is conspicuous by his absence. Sadly, he seems to have kept his name out of the newspapers as well. Emily, describing herself as a married coffee house keeper, is still in the London area, with six children, including the mother of my DNA match but who is using a different christian name (I suspect an enumerator copying error as the names, although very different, have the same number of letters and shape).

Fast forward to 1911 when Emily and three children are in the south of England. Lo and behold Mr Seear turns up, living in London with his brother, claiming to be unmarried and working as a caterer for a licensed victualler. Two final sad entries, which show that Mr Seear spent time in the workhouse before he died.

This has taken me all morning but I am pleased to be able to untangle the tale. Shame about the other 16,000 unidentified DNA matches!

Image copyright R B

So Your DNA Results are ‘Wrong’

* My only connection with Living DNA, or any other DNA testing company, is as a customer. I have received no concessions, free gifts or financial inducements from any of them. I receive no benefits should you decide to purchase their tests.

In the light of the recent ethnicity updates from Living DNA, the perceived accuracy of these estimates has again been the subject of heated debate. Personally, regarding the Living DNA update, I am very pleased with the strong correlation between the documentary trees and the ethnicity estimates of the three kits that I am involved with. This may be because we all have, as far as we know, 100% British ancestry within the genealogical time-frame. Inevitably, amidst the excitement and praise, the updates have brought out plenty of ‘my results are wrong, this company is rubbish’ comments. Indeed, I too have looked at the ‘accuracy’ of the estimates (and used the word rubbish about previous results – although I did qualify it!).

I am a long way from being any kind of DNA expert but many of the main complainants seem to be missing a number of points. Firstly, these are estimates, it is an emerging science, we are a long way away from ethnicity profiles being a complete reflection of our ancestral origins. They will become more accurate over time but the results are currently only as accurate as the base populations from which they are derived. They are more accurate for some areas than others. In Living DNA’s case, it seems that those with British ancestry are more likely to find that their results are a better reflection of the documentary evidence, than those whose families originate elsewhere.

The crucial issue here is how we are measuring ‘accuracy’? Are we looking at where our grandparents were born? Our great grandparents? Their parents? In a British context, having talked to a number of family historians, it seems that you have to go back to those born about 1770-1800 (for me that is 3 x great-grandparents) before you stop adding additional birth counties (N.B. that is counties not countries) to your make-up. Here is an example:- My parents were born in two adjacent counties, Surrey and Middlesex. This does not reflect my earlier origins very well. If I go back to my grandparents, they were born in Surrey, Middlesex (x 2) and Cornwall, so I have added a county. Great grandparents adds Northumberland, Essex and Buckinghamshire to the mix of birthplaces. The next generation adds Sussex and Norfolk. The birthplaces of my 3 x great grandparents looks like the map below and beyond that only those counties illustrated feature. If I were able to go back beyond the genealogical time-frame (earlier than 1500) my deeper ancestry will be more diverse. Anyone with a British family trees will ultimately descend from those with origins in Europe (Saxons, Normans, Vikings, etc.) and beyond but it is unlikely that these individuals will ever appear on our documentary family trees.

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Map created using Genmap

If you are non-British, there will be different considerations of course. Even for those whose ancestry is British, migration patterns cannot be ignored. For example, many who have Northern Irish ancestry in 1800 will find that these families came originally from Scotland or England. We may not know that because we are unable to trace our lines back that far but that may be what the DNA will reflect.

This is not all of course. We all assume that our documentary tree is genetically correct in every particular. It won’t be. Somewhere along one line or another, our solidly Yorkshire great-grandad won’t actually be the father of grandma. Great-grandma will have had a liaison with someone from Kent, or Germany, or Kazakhstan and we will never know, unless DNA matches give us a clue. Our only measure of accuracy is the tree we have lovingly researched and it is gratifying when our ethnicity estimate suggests we have got it right but it is not the company’s fault if we have got it wrong.

On the subject of updates, for my kits, the final Living DNA update is in and I should comment on that, as I have on the others. This person has ancestry from a very restricted geographical area (I promised not to use the word in-bred). So much so, that his sample formed part of the base data to identify Devon DNA. Going back to the ‘magic’ 1770-1800 mark (3 x great grandparents), 88% of his ancestry comes from within fifteen miles of his own birthplace and covers just two adjacent registration districts in north-west Devon. The other 12% is from Cornwall.

The original results were more diverse than this implies:

Devon 48.6%

Cornwall 24.5%

South-east England 13.8%

South England 7%

Cumbria 2.4%

Ireland 2%

South central England 1.6%

The new results reflect the documentary tree more closely:

Devon 64%

Cornwall 22.5%

South England 4%

Ireland 2.4%

South Central England 2.4%

South Wales Border 1.9%

Cumbria 1.7%

South-east England 1%

Now, anything other than the south-west appears to be just ‘noise’.

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Map from Living DNA

Nothing to do with DNA but I know there are readers who are waiting for hint about my next historical novel. I have already said that it is, like Barefoot on the Cobbles, based on a true story. It is also, again like Barefoot, rooted in rigorous genealogical research. Oh and it does now have a title but I will be revealing that at a later date.

Another Day, Another Set of Living DNA Results

So today the second set of DNA results that I look after at Living DNA have received their update. These are Martha’s ethnicity estimate. Although I was very pleased with my own initial Living DNA results and their close resemblance to my documentary tree, Martha’s original results were, not to put too fine a point on it, pretty rubbish. Here are the comments that I made at the time. I do appreciate that our documentary trees do not always mirror our genetic trees and that ethnicity estimates are just that but Martha’s original results had us wondering if she had been swapped at birth, or, less dramatically, if she had been given someone else’s results altogether. As she matched both me and her maternal aunt, it seemed that neither scenario was the case.

Martha original Living DNA estimate

Martha expected results

It was a lovely surprise therefore to find that the updated results were much closer to what forty years worth of documentary research might have led me to expect. Previously, 45% of Martha’s DNA was designated to be Germanic or Scandinavian. Migrations from Europe to the east coast notwithstanding, this was a ridiculously high amount. This has now diminished to a much more likely 3.3%. Last time there was no trace of her paternal Scottish ancestry, a significant proportion from the Forest of Dean, her Welsh borders roots, or the small amount from the Channel Islands. Now, the Forest of Dean shows up, as does Aberdeenshire, although there is still no sign of Worcestershire, which is included in the Welsh borders region. What is notable is the complete lack of Yorkshire ancestry this time. I have 6.7% from Yorkshire in my revised estimate and I have not yet found any ancestors from Yorkshire. Martha, on the other hand, who now has zero Yorkshire DNA, has a Yorkshire great great grandparent.

Martha Feb 2020 Living DNA estimate

So then how close is Martha’s new estimate to what I might expect? As I did for my results yesterday, let’s look at this one region at a time.

Devon and Cornwall first. If Martha had inherited equally from all her 3 x great grandparents (which I know she will not have), her profile should show 9.4% each from both Devon and Cornwall. Last time, this was slightly under represented with 6.8% from Devon and 4.3% from Cornwall. The new results reveal similar amounts: 8.6% for Devon and 3.9% for Cornwall. This swing from Cornwall to Devon, small in Martha’s case, is more marked in my revised estimate.

Northumberland was about right last time at 6%. This has increased to 9.4%. Scotland now appears with 3.4%, as opposed to an anticipated 6.3%. Taken together, these regions are as expected.

The south and south-east of the country is where the highest percentages lie, according to the documentary evidence, with 53% having origins in these regions. Last time, only 30% showed up but now it is a much more realistic 68%. It is difficult to comment on the distribution between the south, south-central, south-eastern and east Anglia regions, partly because Living DNA include Essex in both the south-east and East Anglia.

So the verdict so far, with two out of three updates in, mine has gone from good to still good and  Martha’s, has gone from poor to good. Overall, I am very satisfied. Let us see what the third update will bring.